Marc Guehi looked glum as he headed for the Manchester City bus outside Hill Dickinson Stadium. Understandably, too. His ability to pick the right pass had helped him settle smoothly into the City defence. Until he picked the wrong pass, supplied Thierno Barry with a goal and a 3-3 draw altered the title race.
This had seemed a sequel to 2014 and 2023, a night when City chalked up crucial wins at Everton in the run-in. Instead, there were flashbacks to a couple of other games which, indirectly, led to City becoming champions. City conceded three times in 12 minutes on Monday; in 2014, in ‘Crystanbul’, Brendan Rodgers’ Liverpool let in three in the last 11 minutes away at Crystal Palace. That also finished 3-3. Go back to 2012, and City’s first league title since 1968 was aided by David Moyes’ Everton, mounting an extraordinary comeback to draw 4-4 with Manchester United. In each case, two points were dropped in dramatic fashion.
It may be of scant consolation to Guehi now but, if Arsenal hold on to their advantage at the Premier League summit, his uncharacteristic error will be far from the only reason. In the last couple of years, there has been the temptation to deem this team the City of old: the relentless, remorseless winning machine. They are not, though. City have finished a league season with 14 straight wins before. They needed to be perfect in this run-in, to win their last eight: but this is an imperfect side.
They have spent the season playing catch-up after losing twice in August. City have reeled in Arsenal before, but it is not a failsafe formula. Especially when Guardiola’s City, who used to be frontrunners in title races, have had issues when in front in games. City are far above Arsenal in one table: for points lost from winning positions. Lost leads could be decisive. Their second defeat of the season, at Brighton, came when they led for half an hour.
They have drawn eight times. There was a stalemate at Sunderland. In each of the other seven, City have lost a lead. Perhaps the most damaging was also the most forgivable: amid considerable pressure, Guardiola’s injury-hit side almost held out for victory at Arsenal in September before Gabriel Martinelli’s injury-time lob.
It made for a three-point swing. Yet City should have more regrets about allowing managerless Chelsea an added-time leveller at the Etihad in January. Or failing to beat relegation-threatened West Ham and Nottingham Forest in back-to-back games in March. Or letting Thomas Frank take his last point as Tottenham manager after City went 2-0 up.
Collectively, it points to a lack of ruthlessness. It also suggests that, defensively, City are not quite good enough. That is in spite of some spectacular saves from Gianluigi Donnarumma: briefly on Monday night, it felt like a block from Iliman Ndiaye could be bracketed alongside a magnificent stop from Alexis Mac Allister at Anfield as a transformative moment in the season.
City’s lost leads came with a host of different defences and centre-back partnerships. A mitigating factor in the draw with Chelsea was the loss of the injured Ruben Dias and Josko Gvardiol during the second half; when they were held by Brighton three days later, it was with the rookie Max Alleyne starting.
Guehi and Abdukodir Khusanov had shown promise as a partnership but, even before Barry’s first goal on Monday, it was notable how isolated they looked. Guardiola’s latest revamp has given his team running machines as full-backs, but Matheus Nunes and Nico O’Reilly’s forward momentum is not always allied with defensive solidity.
For the second successive season, City have had a reminder of the importance of Rodri in his absence. Their best form of the campaign, in the trio of wins over Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea in three different competitions, came with the Ballon d’Or winner partnered with Bernardo Silva in the middle of midfield. Maybe Rodri would have given them the calm and authority they lost at Everton.
There were warning signs in a couple of other games he sat out, even if City ultimately emerged victorious. They lost control in the second half at home to Leeds and away at Fulham, eventually prevailing 3-2 and 5-4 respectively. The latter, in particular, is not a typical Guardiola scoreline.
Neither is 3-3. It was Guardiola’s 376th Premier League game and just a second to end with an equal split of six goals. Everton finished with the third highest open play expected goals of any team against Guardiola’s City in the English top flight. Moyes nonetheless described City as the best team in the division. But, five months ago, his former midfielder Mikel Arteta brought Arsenal to the banks of the Mersey, ground out a forgettable 1-0 win and allowed his old club an xG of just 0.24 and one shot on target.
There has long been a theory Arsenal’s defence could win them the league. And perhaps the difference between the top two will be City’s struggles to hold on to leads.
