Saturday horse racing tips: Best bets for Newmarket and York

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It’s another big day at Newmarket, featuring both the Dewhurst Stakes and the Cesarewitch Handicap, and both races feature among Saturday’s racing tips.

William Buick has ridden the winner of this race on five of the last ten renewals and he sports the Godolphin blue here on board Rock Montreal, who went close in Listed company at Doncaster last time.

Sergei Diaghilev was put in his place by Desert Castle in the Group 2 Champagne Stakes at the same venue and a win for the Aidan O’Brien inmate would be no great surprise.

However, I’m siding with one from a stable that has a great record in this contest, that of Charlie Appleby. He’s sent out the winner of half of the last 10 renewals and he may be able to do so again with another Godolphin runner, AL JABBAR.

This son of Sea The Stars shrugged off a lacklustre effort when beaten at odds-on on his debut, scoring at Doncaster (1m, good) last time, when he showed a nice gear change to lead and was always doing enough to keep his nose in front of Hmas Perth.

That form has worked out well, with the second, third and fourth all coming out and winning next time, and Al Jabbar may have been overlooked by the market at 8/1 on betting sites, with plenty of scope for improvement. He wouldn’t be the first apparent second string for an owner to win a race like this.

Newmarket tip 1: Al Jabbar – 1pt each-way @ 8/1 (bet365)

There may be just five declared but what a mouthwatering clash this is for what is universally accepted as the biggest juvenile prize of them all.

DARKNESS FALLS is already the favourite on horse racing betting sites for next year’s Derby after wowing the Leopardstown racegoers with a magnificent performance to land the upgraded Group 1 Golden Fleece Stakes (1m1f, good) last month.

If anything, he was keen enough early on, Ryan Moore settling him in midfield before the pair swept by all comers to win going away by more than four lengths. He’d already trounced a field of Curragh maidens (1m, good) on his second start but built on that impressively last time.

He drops back in trip here but I think the way he’s travelled in both those races, he’ll comfortably have the pace to go with them and his pilot may even decide to take it from the front. He’s a very exciting prospect and most Dewhurst winners tend to have had more, rather than less, experience, so he ticks that box too, having had three runs.

His chief opponent looks likely to be the market leader Desert Castle, who has raced just twice but is unbeaten and is next year’s 2,000 Guineas favourite on several betting apps. That came as a result of his Group 2 Champagne Stakes win at Doncaster (7f, good) last month, which was a big step forward on his July Course debut success in August (7f, good to firm).

The Frankel colt is clearly a serious player but he’s hung left on both occasions so far and Aidan O’Brien will have some sort of idea where he stands in relation to Darkness Falls, as it was Sergei Diaghilev that the Godolphin runner left behind decisively on Town Moor.

O’Brien has also engaged Coventry Stakes winner Great Barrier Reef, who is clearly a classy sort himself but has yet to race beyond 6f. He should see out 7f and, as such, wouldn’t be a major shock winner but it may be more likely that his pace sets things up for the aforementioned pair to take it on in the latter stages. It should be fun finding out.

Dewhurst Stakes tip: Darkness Falls – 1pt win @ 15/8 (bet365)

These big field York sprints still go, more often than not, to runners with a single figure draw. In fact, in the past decade, eight winners have come from stall seven or lower, one from stall nine and you have to go right back to 2016 for the last winner from a double-figure draw (15).

Coul Angel ticks plenty of boxes, arriving in great form, having some good C&D form to her name and he’s drawn right up against the inside rail. He’s been improving of late and did the job well at the Curragh last time but the handicapper has put him up 8lb and that makes this a fair bit tougher.

At the prices, therefore, I’m going to weigh in with DARK THIRTY on an each-way basis. Like so many sprinters, he’s inconsistent but his better efforts would give him claims. Other than last year’s winner Binhareer (now 13lb higher but not ruled out), he’s the only C&D winner with a single figure draw, having beaten that rival a neck here in May (good).

He’s probably handicapped up to somewhere close to his best, so I’m not suggesting he’s thrown in but if he can perform to his optimum he has a much better chance than his current 25/1 odds suggest. His style of running also suits this venue, as he likes to bounce out and race prominently.

At the price I’m hoping he can run a big race each-way and if things drop right for him, perhaps even nick it.

York tip 1: Dark Thirty (York, 15.17) – 1pt each-way @ 25/1 (bet365)

Just as tough as ever, this huge field over an extreme trip makes it tricky for us punters, but it’s a race that has fallen to Ireland in seven of the last ten seasons, and I think this year we could see another such winner in DAWN RISING.

Those with long memories will recall I put him up in this race last year on the back of a good effort in the Irish version of this race. He ran an absolute cracker here too, leading inside the final couple of furlongs but then being collared by Beylerbeyi late on.

The latter is also back for more, with Billy Loughnane again getting the leg up. He’s fully 10lb higher than he was when winning this and he’s around 5/1. It may look generous on Saturday but I’m taking him on.

Unlike in last year’s build-up, Dawn Rising has been campaigned over trips significantly shorter than this by Joseph O’Brien and he’s largely been well held. Unlike the favourite, he’s on the same mark as this time last year and now he goes back up in trip, I think we’ll see the benefit. By coincidence, he’s drawn in the same stall (five) as was last year’s winner, who this time goes from the other side of the Rowley course, in stall 22.

Winners have come from both low and high draws in the last ten years, with four of the last five emerging from stall nine or lower. There are many others with claims, including last-time winners Cock And Bull, Sea Lantern and Valedictory but I’m holding my nerve for a return to form for Dawn Rising, with Ryan Moore booked.

Newmarket tip 2: Dawn Rising (Newmarket, 15.40) – 1pt each-way @ 6/1 (Unibet)

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