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There is a sense of what might have been about Tom Pidcock’s autumn campaign. The results list is strong – six top-10s in his last seven races – but his only win came at a lower-tier race in Italy at the beginning of that run. The real target was the World Championships, where he was bullish about his chances on a route perfectly designed for him.
He came seventh, his second-best result at Worlds, and has seemed largely satisfied with this stretch of the season and his consistency. But, in the absence of the injured and recuperating Tadej Pogacar, this run of races was his – and everyone else’s, of the same profile – to seize. And no-one has really stepped out of the Slovenian’s shadow.
The Giro dell’Emilia, where Pidcock lined up as race favourite having been second for the past two years, summed up this run so far: he was a constant presence at the front of the race, clearly one of the most comfortable on the short, steep climb of San Luca. But he and the slimmed-down group of favourites were caught napping as Davide Piganzoli shot off the front on the final descent, the Italian clinging on to his rapidly eroding lead – despite being weaker on that final climb – to win by just two seconds. Pidcock put in a vicious dig to drop Oscar Onley and take second, clearly with more left in the tank. The 27-year-old was clearly capable of winning; he just left it too late.
At the moment he is cycling’s nearly man. And for a rider of his competitive spirit and calibre, the string of near-misses will sting.
The Briton has a team built entirely around him, but one which is maybe lacking the star power to deliver him to major victories. He has proven over the last two seasons, with a third at the Vuelta a Espana and a ninth at the Tour de France this year, that he can race for general classification results as well as one-day classics. But he is a born racer and would take wins over top-10s anytime.
Il Lombardia is his chance to break that streak. The final Monument of the year, the famous ‘Race of the Falling Leaves’ would be the biggest one-day win of his road-racing career, and greatest road win full stop since his famous victory on Alpe d’Huez.
It is a race he has history with, denied the chance to compete there in 2024 as his relationship with former team Ineos Grenadiers imploded. Last year he came sixth, at the tail end of a season when he also had the effort of a Vuelta in his legs. This year he has had a comparatively lighter autumn programme, there is no five-time champion in Pogacar to contend with and the dynamics of the peloton are quite different.
It has taken some getting used to. The Briton has raced somewhat conservatively in recent weeks, trying to get the balance of covering moves without jeopardising his chances of being able to sprint at the end. It is the trade-off riders constantly have to weigh up – but it has left him out of position at the worst possible time.
The failure of the chasing group, including Pidcock, to reel in solo escapee Brandon McNulty at the World Championships indicated that ‘group two syndrome’ – the weird phenomenon where riders would rather hedge their bets for second place than go for the chance to win – is alive and kicking even without Pogacar in the peloton. Latvia’s Toms Skujins complained vociferously about the same phenomenon at the European Championships, when Remco Evenepoel and Giulio Ciccone were let up the road with barely a token effort to prevent them – even after they had heavily telegraphed the move with an aborted attack a few moments prior.
It has felt at times like the instincts of the peloton have been dulled, paralysed by indecision. Men’s tennis has experienced something similar this year; at Roland-Garros the absence of Carlos Alcaraz and shock defeat of Jannik Sinner suddenly meant a host of top-10 players had the best chance they will ever have to win a grand slam. They all promptly crumbled; the final was decided more by nerves than by anything else.
In cycling McNulty has been the only rider to really seize what certainly has the feel of a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, while Evenepoel bounced back from a wounding Worlds to win the European jersey, which he will debut this Saturday. Plenty of eyes will be on Paul Seixas, the 19-year-old seeking another breakthrough moment.
But for many of that calibre of riders – Pidcock included – Il Lombardia represents the final chance of an unexpectedly open autumn. By the spring Pogacar will be back and no doubt more deadly than ever. There is quite literally no time to lose, no room to hesitate; it is last chance saloon for Pidcock to end a run of near-misses and take himself back to the top of the sport once again.
