What do England need to avoid early exit from Rugby League World Cup? Permutations for Samoa vs Tonga explained

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England’s hopes of reaching the Rugby League World Cup semi-finals appear all but over despite Brian McDermott’s side keeping their chances alive with victory over Papua New Guinea.

A 34-12 success in Wollongong ensured that England avoided a certain pool stage exit, but they require a huge helping hand from Tonga against Samoa on Sunday.

Should Samoa avoid defeat against Tonga in Sydney on Sunday, England will be knocked out – with head-to-head the first tiebreaker in the pool stage table, England would be level on points with Tonga, a team to which they have already lost.

If Samoa are beaten, England would be level on points with a Pacific Island side they have not played at the tournament. In that scenario, the second team to progress alongside Tonga will be decided on points difference.

England enter the final round of fixtures 68 points worse off than Samoa, and could improve that only by 22 points with the win over Papua New Guinea. It means Tonga would have to beat Tonga by an improbable 46 points or more for England to progress.

In 16 previous men’s tournaments, England or Great Britain have never once finished outside the top four places.

The permutations in the four-team Pool A are more straightforward. Australia have already booked their spot as top seed into the second semi-final courtesy of hard-fought wins over New Zealand and Fiji, and the Kiwis will join them provided they beat the Fijians on the Gold Coast on Saturday.

The World Cup final will be held in Brisbane on Saturday 15 November.