Scotland’s hopes of advancing at the World Cup are hanging in the balance – as they now prepare for their final group game against Brazil in Miami.
The Tartan Army’s worst fears from the opening 1-0 win against Haiti were realised almost as soon as Scotland kicked off against Morocco. Scotland knew they couldn’t afford another disjointed performance, but were nevertheless stunned by Ismael Saibari’s thumping finish after just 70 seconds.
Scotland struggled to recover from conceding their fastest goal in World Cup history, but eventually put Morocco under some late pressure and could have been awarded a penalty after Scott McTominay went down in the box. McTominay then rattled a shot into the side-netting.
Steve Clarke’s side now face the daunting task of playing five-time winners Brazil and the talents of Vinicius Jr and Raphinha and needing a draw, – or, at the least, needing to avoid a heavy defeat – to advance to the knockout stages of a World Cup for the first time.
The Tartan Army have thoroughly enjoyed their stay in Boston but they will now head to Miami for a rematch of the 1998 World Cup opener, with Scotland kicking off against Brazil at 11pm UK time (BST) on Wednesday 24 June. That will be shown on BBC One.
Would a draw against Brazil be enough for Scotland to qualify?
Not officially, but it would almost certainly be enough – the scenario Scotland faced before kicking off against Morocco is unchanged when it comes to getting to four points.
This World Cup will see the top two teams in the 12 groups guaranteed qualification to the knockout stages, which starts with a last 32 round. But there are also eight spots for third-placed teams, with the highest points and then goal difference deciding which four teams in third will miss out.
While three points and a positive goal difference is likely to be enough, four points is extremely likely to be enough, but Scotland would need to wait until later in the tournament to be confirmed; with several teams putting together a run of draws, there could be a number of teams in third with four points.
Could Scotland lose to Brazil and still get through?
Now we’re talking.
The good news for Scotland is they only lost 1-0 to Morocco. If they repeat the trick against Brazil and only lose by a one-goal margin, they will finish the group stage on three points and with a goal difference of -1. Based on previous editions of the European Championships (as detailed below) that could be good enough to go through as one of the eight-best third-placed teams. But they would be right on the fence.
Needless to say, a heavy defeat to Brazil, acting as a sledgehammer to the goal difference, would mean Scotland’s hopes of going through would be as slim as the chance of a quiet half in Boston.
What the examples of the Euros tells us
The format of the Euros gives us a bit of a clue.
At Euro 2016, third-placed sides Turkey and Albania were eliminated on three points despite both winning one of their games and losing the other two.
At Euro 2020, Finland and Slovakia both finished third in their group with one win and two defeats, but three points was not enough to qualify.
And in Euro 2024, Hungary were eliminated on three points while Slovenia did ‘a Portugal’ and advanced despite three draws and zero wins.
The magic number for goal difference
Based on the examples of previous tournaments at the Euros, the ranking of third-place teams will be determined by goal difference.
In 2016, Turkey and Albania were eliminated because they finished their group with a goal difference of -2. Meanwhile, Portugal and Northern Ireland advanced on three points and an even goal difference.
At Euro 2020, Finland also went out with a goal difference of -2, with Ukraine progressing on three points and a goal difference of -1.
And in 2024, Hungary’s goal difference of -3 was not good enough to advance, despite them beating Scotland in their final game.
The magic number for progress is therefore likely to be three points, plus a goal difference of at least -1 – the higher, the better, obviously.
In theory, this would involve winning one match, and then limiting the margin of defeat in the other two matches to one goal.
It would be an extremely risky strategy, however, and would leave a team right on the cusp of elimination, relying on other results.
